Crypto analyst ChartNerd has reiterated his bearish outlook for XRP, arguing that a long-term technical indicator suggests the cryptocurrency could decline to the 70–90 cent range before establishing a lasting market bottom.
In a recent video shared on X, ChartNerd revisited XRP’s position within the Gaussian Channel, a long-term trend indicator he believes has consistently tracked the asset’s major market cycles since its early years.
The analyst noted that his previous update came about a month ago when XRP was trading near $1.35 and holding above the Gaussian Channel’s upper regression band. Since then, however, XRP has slipped below that level, a development he says has historically preceded a deeper correction.
According to ChartNerd, previous XRP cycles have followed a similar sequence after reaching major highs. Price typically returns to the upper regression band, stages a relief rally, and later declines toward the middle regression band before forming a longer-term bottom.
Historical Pattern Repeats Across Multiple Cycles
ChartNerd pointed to several historical examples to support his outlook.
He noted that after XRP touched the upper regression band in 2019, the asset rallied roughly 85% before eventually falling toward the middle band. Following the 2021 cycle peak, XRP posted another relief rally of approximately 68% before continuing lower.
The analyst also referenced XRP’s 2014 market cycle, during which the cryptocurrency reportedly gained more than 100% after reaching the upper regression band before ultimately returning to the middle portion of the Gaussian Channel.
According to ChartNerd, the current cycle is showing similar characteristics.
He noted that XRP rebounded approximately 48% after touching the upper regression band earlier this year, climbing from around $1.09 to nearly $1.60. However, with the asset now trading below that level, he believes the next phase of the historical pattern has begun.
While the middle regression band currently sits near $0.84, ChartNerd noted that the level is dynamic and will continue to adjust as the indicator evolves.
Analyst Maintains 70–90 Cent Target
Despite acknowledging that historical performance does not guarantee future results, ChartNerd maintained that every previous XRP cycle eventually revisited or moved below the Gaussian Channel’s middle regression band after losing the upper band.
Based on that recurring pattern, he continues to view the 70-cent to 90-cent range as a realistic downside target.
The analyst added that even if the middle regression band gradually rises toward 90 cents in the coming months, XRP could still briefly trade below that level before establishing a more durable market bottom.
Related article: XRP Breakout Could Trigger Rally to $10 Before True Price Discovery, Says Analyst
Recovery May Take Time
ChartNerd also argued that 2026 resembles previous “midterm years” in XRP’s market history, periods he described as typically characterized by bear markets and extended consolidation.
Although he believes June could potentially mark a local or even cycle low, the analyst does not expect a rapid recovery. Instead, he anticipates XRP could spend the remainder of the year building a base through prolonged accumulation.
He added that meaningful relief rallies may emerge later in the year, particularly around August or September. However, based on the historical behavior of the Gaussian Channel, ChartNerd believes the broader trend still points to a deeper correction before XRP begins a sustained recovery.
